While having a discussion with friends about the accelerating advance of technology, I was asked what I think will happen in society in the next 10 years. I came up with three big things I believe will shape the next decade more than anything else: AI, population collapse, and climate change.
Artificial Intelligence
AI is not the future anymore. It’s here, it’s powerful, and it’s getting smarter every month. We’re entering a period of exponential advancement. In the next decade, AI will become deeply integrated into nearly every sector. Most content, analysis, logistics, and customer service will be AI-augmented or fully AI-run. Nearly every industry will rely on it for automation, decision-making, and even creative generation. GDP will rise, but the resulting wealth will concentrate in the hands of a few.
The good news? AI promises massive productivity gains. Businesses and entire fields are becoming more efficient and streamlined. Winners will be large tech platforms, data-rich firms, elite engineers, and adaptable companies. National GDP is likely to rise. We’ll produce more, understand more, and profit more than in any previous economic boom.
But the bad news is harder to ignore. Losers will be white-collar workers in writing, design, law, finance, and even coding who don’t transition fast enough. Millions of jobs will be automated out of existence as they become increasingly replaceable by AI.
Not everyone will be unemployed, but many will be underemployed, pushed into gig work, short-term contracts, or low-wage service jobs. For much of the population, wages will stagnate and job quality will decline. Without intervention, and unless regulation catches up with restrictions on AI deployment, protections for human-centered roles, or taxes on automation, most of the profits will flow to a small number of corporations and the surviving human engineers who build and maintain the AI systems. AI could create powerful, unaccountable monopolies, digital-age oil barons with no oversight, where a handful of companies control not just the tools, but the economy itself.
What happens to the people who are no longer needed? We’ve seen disruptive technology reshape labor markets before, but never at this speed or scale. If we don’t find answers, we may be headed for widespread unemployment, growing inequality, and serious social unrest.
We may have to start considering Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a way to ensure that the enormous profits generated by AI are shared with the larger population. But implementing UBI would be politically and economically complex. Can it be accomplished?
Population Collapse
While headlines tend to focus on overpopulation, the reality in developed nations is the opposite. Birth rates are plummeting across the US, Europe, Japan, and South Korea. Fewer people are having children, often for complex social, economic, and cultural reasons. At the same time, we’re getting better at prolonging life. Medical advances mean people are living longer, even as fewer young people are being born.
The result is a top-heavy population pyramid, a shrinking workforce tasked with supporting a growing elderly population. This demographic imbalance threatens to undermine everything from pensions and healthcare systems to economic growth and innovation. Who will do the work? Who will pay the taxes? Who will care for the elderly?
This trend, while quiet now, will become painfully obvious over the next decade as schools close, labor markets tighten, and entire towns and industries shrink.
Climate Change
Regardless of where you fall on the political spectrum, it’s clear that the Earth’s climate is changing. Temperatures are rising, storms are intensifying, wildfires are worsening, and sea levels are creeping higher. Communities on low-lying islands and coastal cities are facing existential threats.
In the next 10 years, we’ll likely see more forced migrations due to floods, droughts, or heatwaves. Infrastructure damage, insurance market collapses, and crop failures will strain economies. Climate volatility will drive up food prices, increase political instability, and put more pressure on already vulnerable populations. Access to fresh water could become one of the most urgent global issues, pushing nations to desperation and even war.
Ironically, the luxury appeal of places like Malibu, South Florida, and the Gulf Coast has kept property values high, even as sea levels rise and storms grow stronger. So far, people are willing to ride it out for those magnificent views and prestigious ZIP codes. But it’s only a matter of time. As the risks become reality, coastal property crashes will begin, slowly at first, then all at once. The smart money is already getting out, while the not-so-smart money and communities of people who are incapable of moving elsewhere are being left behind.
The 2020s will likely be remembered as the decade the world began to really feel climate change, not just see it in graphs. Expect more billion-dollar disasters, uninsurable homes, crop volatility, and climate-driven migration. Wealthier nations will invest heavily in adaptation by building seawalls, desalination plants, and underground infrastructure, while poorer nations suffer displacement and political instability.
Final Thoughts
These three big things, AI, population collapse, and climate change, are all interconnected in interesting, complicated, and dangerous ways. AI may reduce the need for workers in a shrinking population. A shrinking population might put less strain on limited resources like food and fresh water. And climate change might accelerate the development of AI and other technologies to help us adapt or survive.
How will this all shake out? I don’t know for sure, but it’s going to be a bumpy ride. How we prepare, respond, and adapt over the next decade will determine how well we ride it out. And with the possibility of a next-level AI breakthrough, economic or climate-driven unrest, or unprecedented global cooperation on policy, in an instant, everything could change in ways we can’t even imagine.
What a fascinating and terrifying moment in human history to be alive.
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