Managing in MLB

2014: Matt Williams named NL Manager of the Year
October 2015: Nationals fire Matt Williams

2016-2017: Dusty Baker becomes most successful manager in Nationals/Expos franchise history
October 2017: Nationals fire Dusty Baker

Bottom line is that these firings often do not always correspond with a manager’s success on the field. Based on the team performance that we see as fans, these moves are often irrational. Why do they happen? Sometimes, players reveal things to management that none of us see or hear about. Sometimes, teams just need someone to blame. Sometimes, it’s internal politics we know nothing about. So who are the most successful managers ever? Is there a way to look at it sabermetrically? The quick and dirty way to see who the most successful managers have been is to look at simple W-L records of the teams they managed. Even better to include post-season along with their regular season totals. Here are the top 10 MLB managers in career regular and post-season wins:

I don’t like this list, as it clearly rewards managers who have been around the longest without consideration of their overall record. Mack leads the list with a losing record. Here’s the top 10 in career regular and post-season winning percentage (minimum 315 games, per baseball-reference.com):

Still not great, as someone like Dave Roberts sneaks into the all-time greats just because he had 3 seasons with a great team. We need a better way to look at the numbers. We want to make sure that managers who are above .500 are considered successful, those who .500 or below are considered unsuccessful, and we want to reward those who have done this for the longest. How about sorting managers by career regular and post-season games above .500?

Ah, getting interesting now. I like the look of this list. Who are the worst all-time managers by this same measure?

Well, look at that. Connie Mack at the top. I’m OK with that. Now let’s look at all active managers (through 2017) by this measure.

Baker and Girardi, both up there. And if we’re looking at the performance of their teams, this is absolutely where they belong. Yes, I know that some managers are just lucky enough to align themselves with teams that are really great, even dynasties that last for a decade or more, but I do think that this look at the numbers is revealing.