Spurred on by discussion in my fantasy baseball league (where many of my baseball musings are born) about whether or not the Braves got a good deal on Josh Donaldson with a $23 million 1-year contract, I thought to myself, there must be a quick-and-dirty quantitative way to spit out a number for how much a player is worth based on his recent performance and age.
So I opened up Google sheets and started playing with the numbers. I came up with a weighted WAR based on the player’s last 5 years, made modifications for age, plugged in the 2018 estimate that 1 WAR is worth about $11.1M on the free agent market, and spit out some numbers. I checked Donaldson, Atlanta’s signing of Brian McCann for $2M, and a bunch of other high-profile free agents this off-season. I also added a few random players just to see where they’d end up.
Here are the results, sorted by their value for next season:
| Player | Age Next Year | WAR 1Y Ago | WAR 2Y Ago | WAR 3Y Ago | WAR 4Y Ago | WAR 5Y Ago | Estimated WAR | Reduced WAR | Age Modifier | Age-Modified WAR | $M/WAR | Next Year Value ($M) | Next Year Deal ($M) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | 27 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.02 | 4.6 | $11.1 | $51.4 | $34.1 | -34% |
| Mookie Betts | 26 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.06 | 4.4 | $11.1 | $48.5 | ||
| Nolan Arenado | 28 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 0.99 | 3.0 | $11.1 | $33.7 | ||
| Max Scherzer | 34 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 0.81 | 3.0 | $11.1 | $33.3 | $42.1 | 26% |
| Manny Machado | 26 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.06 | 2.8 | $11.1 | $31.2 | ||
| Christian Yelich | 27 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.02 | 2.8 | $11.1 | $30.7 | $9.8 | -68% |
| Jacob deGrom | 31 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.89 | 2.7 | $11.1 | $29.6 | ||
| Josh Donaldson | 33 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.84 | 2.0 | $11.1 | $22.5 | $23.0 | 2% |
| Bryce Harper | 26 | 1.3 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.06 | 1.8 | $11.1 | $20.0 | ||
| Jason Heyward | 29 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.95 | 1.3 | $11.1 | $14.1 | $28.2 | 99% |
| Kurt Suzuki | 35 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.79 | 0.7 | $11.1 | $7.6 | $5.0 | -34% |
| Brian McCann | 35 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.79 | 0.5 | $11.1 | $5.7 | $2.0 | -65% |
| Lonnie Chisenhall | 30 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.92 | 0.5 | $11.1 | $5.3 | $2.8 | -48% |
| Matt Wieters | 33 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.84 | 0.2 | $11.1 | $2.7 | ||
| Albert Pujols | 39 | 0.5 | -1.8 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.71 | 0.2 | $11.1 | $2.4 | $28.0 | 1060% |
| Barry Bonds | 54 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.51 | 1.1 | $11.1 | $12.4 | ||
| Babe Ruth | 123 | 0.2 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.22 | 0.5 | $11.1 | $5.6 |
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JA4LJND4_hDZzZY43OBHVAt2EKUiHLq4JdzQbSkO0p0/edit?usp=sharing
Result: I think the Braves paid roughly fair value for Donaldson and got a steal on Brian McCann. Harper’s not worth what he’s probably going to get. Pujols is absurdly overpaid at this point. And if Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds were still alive and available to play, assuming their abilities had not diminished since they last played, they’d still be worth millions of dollars on today’s free agent market.
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